I was starting to draft a very similar post. I was looking through all of the comments on this shortform that posed a similar question.
I stopped writing that draft when I saw and thought about this comment:
Something I’m worried about now is some RFK Jr/Dr. Oz equivalent being picked to lead on AI...
That is pretty clearly what would happen if a US-led effort was launched soon. So, I quite weighing the upsides against that huge downside.
It is vaguely possible that Trump could be persuaded to put such a project into responsible hands. One route to do that is working in cooperation with the EU and other allied nations. But Trump isn’t likely to cede influence over such an important project as far as that. The US is far, far ahead of its allies, so cutting them in as equal partners seems unlikely.
I was thinking about writing a post called “an apollo project for AGI is a bad idea for the near future” making the above point. But it seems kind of obvious.
Trump will appoint someone who won’t get and won’t care about thee dangers; they’ll YOLO it; we’ll die unless alignment turned out to be ridiculously easy. Bad idea.
Now, how to say that in policy debates? I don’t know.
I was starting to draft a very similar post. I was looking through all of the comments on this short form that posed a similar question.
I stopped writing that draft when I saw and thought about this comment:
That is pretty clearly what would happen if a US-led effort was launched soon. So, I quite weighing the upsides against that huge downside.
It is vaguely possible that Trump could be persuaded to put such a project into responsible hands. One route to do that is working in cooperation with the EU and other allied nations. But Trump isn’t likely to cede influence over such an important project as far as that. The US is far, far ahead of its allies, so cutting them in as equal partners seems unlikely.
I was thinking about writing a post called “an apollo project for AGI is a bad idea for the near future” making the above point. But it seems kind of obvious.
Trump will appoint someone who won’t get and won’t care about thee dangers; they’ll YOLO it; we’ll die unless alignment turned out to be ridiculously easy. Bad idea.
Now, how to say that in policy debates? I don’t know.
Then you should probably write the post, if you wanted to. It is emphatically not obvious to many other people.