“error and irrational decision making are possible”
Oh sure, HA: also it is possible that one side is actually suicidal, which some argue is a notable feature Tehran’s Shi’ism. Then clearly MAD fails.
On the other hand, without MAD, we have the tragic Hiroshima situation—there is no real compunction to prevent immediate use upon technological achievement. Suppose Robin Hanson is right and people really don’t care about morality as much as they say. It’s von Clausewitz time, right? “War is a continuation of politics with other means.” Politics is many things, but moral isn’t one of them, sadly, since I might argue that we are not ruled by philosopher-kings but rather classic demagogues.
I can’t guarantee that Nash always works in every situation, but in an imperfect world, I’d prefer to go with what has been proven to work before in roughly similar conditions. Once the weapons exist, aren’t we in an ugly world with no good choices?
I think careful analysis may show that there is no nuke-potential state that is in fact suicidal. The mullahs are keen to retain power—they are politicians too. Thus despite the dangers, I am unsure we actually have any other serious alternatives but to return to MAD. But hey I have an open mind.
@HA
“error and irrational decision making are possible”
Oh sure, HA: also it is possible that one side is actually suicidal, which some argue is a notable feature Tehran’s Shi’ism. Then clearly MAD fails.
On the other hand, without MAD, we have the tragic Hiroshima situation—there is no real compunction to prevent immediate use upon technological achievement. Suppose Robin Hanson is right and people really don’t care about morality as much as they say. It’s von Clausewitz time, right? “War is a continuation of politics with other means.” Politics is many things, but moral isn’t one of them, sadly, since I might argue that we are not ruled by philosopher-kings but rather classic demagogues.
I can’t guarantee that Nash always works in every situation, but in an imperfect world, I’d prefer to go with what has been proven to work before in roughly similar conditions. Once the weapons exist, aren’t we in an ugly world with no good choices?
I think careful analysis may show that there is no nuke-potential state that is in fact suicidal. The mullahs are keen to retain power—they are politicians too. Thus despite the dangers, I am unsure we actually have any other serious alternatives but to return to MAD. But hey I have an open mind.