This is a valid point, and that’s not what I’m critiquing. I’m critiquing how he confidently dismisses ANNs
I guess I read that as talking about the fact that at the time ANNs did not in fact really work. I agree he failed to predict that would change, but that doesn’t strike me as a damning prediction.
Matters would be different if he said in the quotes you cite “you only get these human-like properties by very exactly mimicking the human brain”, but he doesn’t.
Didn’t he? He at least confidently rules out a very large class of modern approaches.
Confidently ruling out a large class of modern approaches isn’t really that similar to saying “the only path to success is exactly mimicking the human brain”. It seems like one could rule them out by having some theory about why they’re deficient. I haven’t re-read List of Lethalities because I want to go to sleep soon, but I searched for “brain” and did not find a passage saying “the real problem is that we need to emulate the brain precisely but can’t because of poor understanding of neuroanatomy” or something.
I guess I read that as talking about the fact that at the time ANNs did not in fact really work. I agree he failed to predict that would change, but that doesn’t strike me as a damning prediction.
Confidently ruling out a large class of modern approaches isn’t really that similar to saying “the only path to success is exactly mimicking the human brain”. It seems like one could rule them out by having some theory about why they’re deficient. I haven’t re-read List of Lethalities because I want to go to sleep soon, but I searched for “brain” and did not find a passage saying “the real problem is that we need to emulate the brain precisely but can’t because of poor understanding of neuroanatomy” or something.