Oh that’s an interesting way to approach things! If you were asked : a fair coin is tossed, what is the probability it will land on head—wouldn’t you reply 1⁄2, and wouldn’t you for your reply be relying on such a thing as conventional probability theory?
Yes for the first half, no for the second. I would reply 1⁄2, but not JUST because of conventional probability theory. It’s also because the unstated parts of “what will resolve the prediction”, in my estimation and modeling, match the setup of conventional probability theory. It’s generally assumed there’s no double-counting or other experience-affecting tomfoolery.
Oh that’s an interesting way to approach things! If you were asked : a fair coin is tossed, what is the probability it will land on head—wouldn’t you reply 1⁄2, and wouldn’t you for your reply be relying on such a thing as conventional probability theory?
Yes for the first half, no for the second. I would reply 1⁄2, but not JUST because of conventional probability theory. It’s also because the unstated parts of “what will resolve the prediction”, in my estimation and modeling, match the setup of conventional probability theory. It’s generally assumed there’s no double-counting or other experience-affecting tomfoolery.