Yes for the first half, no for the second. I would reply 1⁄2, but not JUST because of conventional probability theory. It’s also because the unstated parts of “what will resolve the prediction”, in my estimation and modeling, match the setup of conventional probability theory. It’s generally assumed there’s no double-counting or other experience-affecting tomfoolery.
Yes for the first half, no for the second. I would reply 1⁄2, but not JUST because of conventional probability theory. It’s also because the unstated parts of “what will resolve the prediction”, in my estimation and modeling, match the setup of conventional probability theory. It’s generally assumed there’s no double-counting or other experience-affecting tomfoolery.