Right, so, this is an example of a disagreement I don’t know how to resolve in any systematic way. If Robin comes in and says the same thing as Russell, which I doubt, I wouldn’t know how the two of us ought to reconcile if we thought the other was as meta-rational as ourselves.
Basically, you’ve got—extrapolating Moore’s Law on out, as if society’s still around in one form or another and still has a smooth global tech progress metric—to where you’ve got “a billion times human computing power for $1000”, whatever that means, which must be at least a million times as fast as a human brain serially because we already have chips that fast (they’re just much less parallel).
And you’ve got Moore’s Law continuing past this point at the same sidereal time rate, so that, after another 3,600 rotations of the Earth and ten slow orbits around the sun, computing speeds are a hundred times greater.
It’s enough time for 10 million years of thought, if you were only running humans at a million times the clock speed; but this isn’t human thought.
But they don’t spike to the limits of design and then stop.
Instead, the equivalent of chips are just a hundred times faster, after Earth has swung around in its orbit ten times. Cuz that’s Moore’s Law. Doubling every eighteen months.
Now, I understand what thought you are performing here. You’re thinking, “Nelson and Xanadu tried to second-guess Moore’s Law, and they were wrong, so I’m sticking with Moore’s Law.” And that’s where the graph extends. I get that.
But I don’t know how to prosecute this disagreement any further. I’m using the Weak Inside View to predict a qualitative speedup. You’re just extending the same graph on outward. What do I do with that? To me it just seems that I’ve reached the point of “Zombies! Zombies?”
Right, so, this is an example of a disagreement I don’t know how to resolve in any systematic way. If Robin comes in and says the same thing as Russell, which I doubt, I wouldn’t know how the two of us ought to reconcile if we thought the other was as meta-rational as ourselves.
Basically, you’ve got—extrapolating Moore’s Law on out, as if society’s still around in one form or another and still has a smooth global tech progress metric—to where you’ve got “a billion times human computing power for $1000”, whatever that means, which must be at least a million times as fast as a human brain serially because we already have chips that fast (they’re just much less parallel).
And you’ve got Moore’s Law continuing past this point at the same sidereal time rate, so that, after another 3,600 rotations of the Earth and ten slow orbits around the sun, computing speeds are a hundred times greater.
It’s enough time for 10 million years of thought, if you were only running humans at a million times the clock speed; but this isn’t human thought.
But they don’t spike to the limits of design and then stop.
Instead, the equivalent of chips are just a hundred times faster, after Earth has swung around in its orbit ten times. Cuz that’s Moore’s Law. Doubling every eighteen months.
Now, I understand what thought you are performing here. You’re thinking, “Nelson and Xanadu tried to second-guess Moore’s Law, and they were wrong, so I’m sticking with Moore’s Law.” And that’s where the graph extends. I get that.
But I don’t know how to prosecute this disagreement any further. I’m using the Weak Inside View to predict a qualitative speedup. You’re just extending the same graph on outward. What do I do with that? To me it just seems that I’ve reached the point of “Zombies! Zombies?”