Re Putin being still in power/there being a coup:
Presumably there is a small but nonzero chance of Putin e.g. dying in some way that is not (or can plausibly be claimed not to be) the result of a coup? He’s 70 years old, and apparently there’s about a 2% chance of a 70yo dying naturally in any given year (though he does seem healthier than average).
Re Putin being still in power/there being a coup:
Presumably there is a small but nonzero chance of Putin e.g. dying in some way that is not (or can plausibly be claimed not to be) the result of a coup? He’s 70 years old, and apparently there’s about a 2% chance of a 70yo dying naturally in any given year (though he does seem healthier than average).