I went back-and-forth with Bucky a bit, looked at the formulas, and I now think the current graph is correct. The main surprising thing was that the likelihood isn’t sharper; apparently there’s actually pretty few 1-berth cabins, so we don’t have a sharp estimate for the background infection rate. Most of the uncertainty in the secondary rate is tightly coupled to the uncertainty in the background rate.
I went back-and-forth with Bucky a bit, looked at the formulas, and I now think the current graph is correct. The main surprising thing was that the likelihood isn’t sharper; apparently there’s actually pretty few 1-berth cabins, so we don’t have a sharp estimate for the background infection rate. Most of the uncertainty in the secondary rate is tightly coupled to the uncertainty in the background rate.