Promoted to curated: Adverse selections seems like a really useful lens to throw at lots of different things in the world, and I can’t currently think of another post on the internet that gets the concept across as well as this one.
I generally really like starting of a sequence like this using lots of concrete examples, instead of abstract definitions.
I do think there is something tricky about adverse selection in that it is the kind of thing that does often invite a kind of magical thinking or serve as a semantic stopsign for people trying to analyze a situation. People modeling you, or people modeling groups that you are part of, results in tricky and loopy situations, and I’ve often seen people arrive at confident wrong conclusions based on analysis in this space (though this post, mostly as a list of examples doesn’t fall into that error mode, but I find myself curious how future posts in the sequence might handle those cases).
Promoted to curated: Adverse selections seems like a really useful lens to throw at lots of different things in the world, and I can’t currently think of another post on the internet that gets the concept across as well as this one.
I generally really like starting of a sequence like this using lots of concrete examples, instead of abstract definitions.
I do think there is something tricky about adverse selection in that it is the kind of thing that does often invite a kind of magical thinking or serve as a semantic stopsign for people trying to analyze a situation. People modeling you, or people modeling groups that you are part of, results in tricky and loopy situations, and I’ve often seen people arrive at confident wrong conclusions based on analysis in this space (though this post, mostly as a list of examples doesn’t fall into that error mode, but I find myself curious how future posts in the sequence might handle those cases).