In my opinion, the risk analysis here is fundamentally flawed. Here’s my take on the two main SETI scenarios proposed in the OP:
Automatic disclosure SETI—all potential messages are disclosed to the public pre analysis. This is dangerous if it is possible to send EDM (Extremely Dangerous Messages—world exploding/world hacking), and plausible to expect they would be sent.
Committee vetting SETI—all potential messages are reviewed by a committee of experts, who have the option of unilaterally concealing information they deem to be dangerous.
The argument in the OP hinges on portraying the first scenario as risky, with the second scenario motivated based on avoiding that risk. But the risk to be avoided there is fully theoretical, there’s no concrete basis EDM (obviously if smart people think there can be/should be a concrete basis for them, I’d love to see it fleshed out).
But the second scenario has much more plausible risk! Conditioned on both scenarios eventually receiving alien messages, the second scenario could still be dangerous if EDM aren’t real. By handling alien messages with unilateral secrecy, you’re creating a situation where normal human incentives for wealth, personal aggrandizement, or even altruistic principles could lead a small, insular group to try to seize power using alien technology. The main assumption for this risk to be a factor, is that aliens sending us messages could have significantly superior technology. This seems more plausible than the existence of EDM, which is after all essentially the same claim but incredibly stronger.
Some people might even see the ability to seize power with alien tech as a feature, probably. But I think this is an underdiscussed and essential aspect to the analysis of public disclosure SETI vs secret committee SETI. To my mind, it dominates the risk of EDM until there’s a basis for claiming that EDM are real.
In my opinion, the risk analysis here is fundamentally flawed. Here’s my take on the two main SETI scenarios proposed in the OP:
Automatic disclosure SETI—all potential messages are disclosed to the public pre analysis. This is dangerous if it is possible to send EDM (Extremely Dangerous Messages—world exploding/world hacking), and plausible to expect they would be sent.
Committee vetting SETI—all potential messages are reviewed by a committee of experts, who have the option of unilaterally concealing information they deem to be dangerous.
The argument in the OP hinges on portraying the first scenario as risky, with the second scenario motivated based on avoiding that risk. But the risk to be avoided there is fully theoretical, there’s no concrete basis EDM (obviously if smart people think there can be/should be a concrete basis for them, I’d love to see it fleshed out).
But the second scenario has much more plausible risk! Conditioned on both scenarios eventually receiving alien messages, the second scenario could still be dangerous if EDM aren’t real. By handling alien messages with unilateral secrecy, you’re creating a situation where normal human incentives for wealth, personal aggrandizement, or even altruistic principles could lead a small, insular group to try to seize power using alien technology. The main assumption for this risk to be a factor, is that aliens sending us messages could have significantly superior technology. This seems more plausible than the existence of EDM, which is after all essentially the same claim but incredibly stronger.
Some people might even see the ability to seize power with alien tech as a feature, probably. But I think this is an underdiscussed and essential aspect to the analysis of public disclosure SETI vs secret committee SETI. To my mind, it dominates the risk of EDM until there’s a basis for claiming that EDM are real.