And yeah, I do think the thing I am most worried about with Chat-GPT in addition to just shortening timelines is increasing the number of actors in the space, which also has indirect effects on timelines. A world where both Microsoft and Google are doubling down on AI is probably also a world where AI regulation has a much harder time taking off.
Maybe—but Microsoft and Google are huge organizations, and huge organizations have an incentive to push for regulation that imposes costs that they can pay while disproportionately hampering smaller competitors. It seems plausible to me that both M & G might prefer a regulatory scheme that overall slows down progress while cementing their dominance, since that would be a pretty standard regulatory-capture-driven-by-the-dominant-actors-in-the-field kind of scenario.
A sudden wave of destabilizing AI breakthroughs—with DALL-E/Midjourney/Stable Diffusion suddenly disrupting art and Chat-GPT who-knows-how-many-things—can also make people on the street concerned and both more supportive of AI regulation in general, as well as more inclined to take AGI scenarios seriously in particular. I recently saw a blog post from someone speculating that this might cause a wide variety of actors—M & G included—with a desire to slow down AI progress to join forces to push for widespread regulation.
It seems plausible to me that both M & G might prefer a regulatory scheme that overall slows down progress while cementing their dominance, since that would be a pretty standard regulatory-capture-driven-by-the-dominant-actors-in-the-field kind of scenario.
Interesting. Where did something like this happen?
I asked Chat-GPT and one of the clearest examples it came up with is patent trolling by large pharmaceutical companies. Their lobbying tends to be far more focused on securing monopoly rights to their products for as long as possible than anything related to innovation.
Other examples:
Automakers lobbying for restrictive standards for potential market disruptors like electric or self-driving vehicles
Telecoms lobbying against Net Neutrality
Taxi companies lobbying against ridesharing startups
Tech companies lobbying for intellectual property and data privacy regulations that they have better legal/compliance resources to handle
Maybe—but Microsoft and Google are huge organizations, and huge organizations have an incentive to push for regulation that imposes costs that they can pay while disproportionately hampering smaller competitors. It seems plausible to me that both M & G might prefer a regulatory scheme that overall slows down progress while cementing their dominance, since that would be a pretty standard regulatory-capture-driven-by-the-dominant-actors-in-the-field kind of scenario.
A sudden wave of destabilizing AI breakthroughs—with DALL-E/Midjourney/Stable Diffusion suddenly disrupting art and Chat-GPT who-knows-how-many-things—can also make people on the street concerned and both more supportive of AI regulation in general, as well as more inclined to take AGI scenarios seriously in particular. I recently saw a blog post from someone speculating that this might cause a wide variety of actors—M & G included—with a desire to slow down AI progress to join forces to push for widespread regulation.
Interesting. Where did something like this happen?
I asked Chat-GPT and one of the clearest examples it came up with is patent trolling by large pharmaceutical companies. Their lobbying tends to be far more focused on securing monopoly rights to their products for as long as possible than anything related to innovation.
Other examples:
Automakers lobbying for restrictive standards for potential market disruptors like electric or self-driving vehicles
Telecoms lobbying against Net Neutrality
Taxi companies lobbying against ridesharing startups
Tech companies lobbying for intellectual property and data privacy regulations that they have better legal/compliance resources to handle