it legitimately takes the whole 4 years after that to develop real AGI that ends the world. FINE. SO WHAT. EVERYONE STILL DIES.
By Gricean implicature, “everyone still dies” is relevant to the post’s thesis. Which implies that the post’s thesis is that humanity will not go extinct. But the post is about the rate of AI progress, not human extinction.
This seems like a bucket error, where “will takeoff be fast or slow?” and “will AI cause human extinction?” are put in the same bucket.
By Gricean implicature, “everyone still dies” is relevant to the post’s thesis. Which implies that the post’s thesis is that humanity will not go extinct. But the post is about the rate of AI progress, not human extinction.
This seems like a bucket error, where “will takeoff be fast or slow?” and “will AI cause human extinction?” are put in the same bucket.