Who knew that Eliezer would respond with a long list of examples that didn’t look like continuous progress at the time, and said this more than 3 days ago?
What examples are you thinking of here? I see (1) humans and chimps, (2) nukes, (3) AlphaGo, (4) invention of airplanes by the Wright brothers, (5) AlphaFold 2, (6) Transformers, (7) TPUs, and (8) GPT-3.
I’ve explicitly seen 1, 2, and probably 4 in arguments before. (1 and 2 are in Takeoff speeds.) The remainder seem like they plausibly did look like continuous progress* at the time. (Paul explicitly challenged 3, 6, and 7, and I feel like 5 and 8 are also debatable, though 8 is a more complicated story.) I also think I’ve seen some of 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 on Eliezer’s Twitter claimed as evidence for Eliezer over Hanson in the foom debate, idk which off the top of my head.
I did not know that Eliezer would respond with this list of examples, but that’s mostly because I expected him to have different arguments, e.g. more of an emphasis on a core of intelligence that current systems don’t have and future systems will have, or more emphasis on aspects of recursive self improvement, or some unknown argument because I hadn’t talked to Eliezer nor seen a rebuttal from him so it seemed quite plausible he had points I hadn’t considered. The list of examples itself was not all that novel to me.
(Eliezer of course also has other arguments in this post; I’m just confused about the emphasis on a “long list of examples” in the parent comment.)
* Note that “continuous progress” here is a stand-in for the-strategy-Paul-uses-to-predict, which as I understand it is more like “form beliefs about how outputs scale with effort in this domain using past examples / trend lines, then see how much effort is being added now relative to the past, and use that to make a prediction”.
What examples are you thinking of here? I see (1) humans and chimps, (2) nukes, (3) AlphaGo, (4) invention of airplanes by the Wright brothers, (5) AlphaFold 2, (6) Transformers, (7) TPUs, and (8) GPT-3.
I’ve explicitly seen 1, 2, and probably 4 in arguments before. (1 and 2 are in Takeoff speeds.) The remainder seem like they plausibly did look like continuous progress* at the time. (Paul explicitly challenged 3, 6, and 7, and I feel like 5 and 8 are also debatable, though 8 is a more complicated story.) I also think I’ve seen some of 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 on Eliezer’s Twitter claimed as evidence for Eliezer over Hanson in the foom debate, idk which off the top of my head.
I did not know that Eliezer would respond with this list of examples, but that’s mostly because I expected him to have different arguments, e.g. more of an emphasis on a core of intelligence that current systems don’t have and future systems will have, or more emphasis on aspects of recursive self improvement, or some unknown argument because I hadn’t talked to Eliezer nor seen a rebuttal from him so it seemed quite plausible he had points I hadn’t considered. The list of examples itself was not all that novel to me.
(Eliezer of course also has other arguments in this post; I’m just confused about the emphasis on a “long list of examples” in the parent comment.)
* Note that “continuous progress” here is a stand-in for the-strategy-Paul-uses-to-predict, which as I understand it is more like “form beliefs about how outputs scale with effort in this domain using past examples / trend lines, then see how much effort is being added now relative to the past, and use that to make a prediction”.