I think Metaculus is closer to Eliezer here: conditioned on this problem being resolved it seems unlikely for the AI to be either open-sourced or easily reproducible.
My honest guess is that most predictors didn’t see that condition and the distribution would shift right if someone pointed that out in the comments.
I think Metaculus is closer to Eliezer here: conditioned on this problem being resolved it seems unlikely for the AI to be either open-sourced or easily reproducible.
My honest guess is that most predictors didn’t see that condition and the distribution would shift right if someone pointed that out in the comments.