It feels like this bet would look a lot better if it were about something that you predict at well over 50% (with people in Paul’s camp still maintaining less than 50%).
My model of Eliezer may be wrong, but I’d guess that this isn’t a domain where he has many over-50% predictions of novel events at all? See also ‘I don’t necessarily expect self-driving cars before the apocalypse’.
My Eliezer-model has a more flat prior over what might happen, which therefore includes stuff like ‘maybe we’ll make insane progress on theorem-proving (or whatever) out of the blue’. Again, I may be wrong, but my intuition is that you’re Paul-omorphizing Eliezer when you assume that >16% probability of huge progress in X by year Y implies >50% probability of smaller-but-meaningful progress in X by year Y.
My model of Eliezer may be wrong, but I’d guess that this isn’t a domain where he has many over-50% predictions of novel events at all? See also ‘I don’t necessarily expect self-driving cars before the apocalypse’.
My Eliezer-model has a more flat prior over what might happen, which therefore includes stuff like ‘maybe we’ll make insane progress on theorem-proving (or whatever) out of the blue’. Again, I may be wrong, but my intuition is that you’re Paul-omorphizing Eliezer when you assume that >16% probability of huge progress in X by year Y implies >50% probability of smaller-but-meaningful progress in X by year Y.
(Ah, EY already replied.)