I expect it to be hella difficult to pick anything where I’m at 75% that it happens in the next 5 years and Paul is at 25%. Heck, it’s not easy to find things where I’m at over 75% that aren’t just obvious slam dunks; the Future isn’t that easy to predict. Let’s get up to a nice crawl first, and then maybe a small portfolio of crawlings, before we start trying to make single runs that pierce the sound barrier.
I frame no prediction about whether Paul is under 16%. That’s a separate matter. I think a little progress is made toward eventual epistemic virtue if you hand me a Metaculus forecast and I’m like “lol wut” and double their probability, even if it turns out that Paul agrees with me about it.
I expect it to be hella difficult to pick anything where I’m at 75% that it happens in the next 5 years and Paul is at 25%. Heck, it’s not easy to find things where I’m at over 75% that aren’t just obvious slam dunks; the Future isn’t that easy to predict. Let’s get up to a nice crawl first, and then maybe a small portfolio of crawlings, before we start trying to make single runs that pierce the sound barrier.
I frame no prediction about whether Paul is under 16%. That’s a separate matter. I think a little progress is made toward eventual epistemic virtue if you hand me a Metaculus forecast and I’m like “lol wut” and double their probability, even if it turns out that Paul agrees with me about it.