AlphaFold 2 coming out of Deepmind and shocking the heck out of everyone in the field of protein folding with performance far better than they expected even after the previous shock of AlphaFold, by combining many pieces that I suppose you could find precedents for scattered around the AI field, but with those many secret sauces all combined in one place by the meta-secret-sauce of “Deepmind alone actually knows how to combine that stuff and build things that complicated without a prior example”?
Hm. I wonder if there’s a bet to be extracted from this. Like: Eliezer says that Alphafold 2 beats [algorithms previous to Alphafold 2, but with 10x compute], and Paul says the latter beats the former? Or replace Alphafold 2 with anything that Eliezer thinks contains some amount of secret sauce over previous things (whether or not its performance is “on trend”).
Hm. I wonder if there’s a bet to be extracted from this. Like: Eliezer says that Alphafold 2 beats [algorithms previous to Alphafold 2, but with 10x compute], and Paul says the latter beats the former? Or replace Alphafold 2 with anything that Eliezer thinks contains some amount of secret sauce over previous things (whether or not its performance is “on trend”).