Thanks for writing this up. It’s pretty clear to me that you aren’t modeling me particularly well, and that it would take a very long time to resolve this, which I’m not particularly willing to do right now.
I’ll give anyone 10:1 odds this is cited in a mainstream political science journal within 15 years, which are read by people who both set and advise on policy
I’ll take that bet. Here’s a proposal: I send you $100 today, and in 15 years if you can’t show me an article in a reputable mainstream political science journal that mentions this event, then you send me an inflation-adjusted $1000. This is conditional on finding an arbiter I trust (perhaps Ben) who will:
Adjudicate whether it is an “article in a reputable mainstream political science journal that mentions this event”
Compute the inflation-adjusted amount, should that be necessary
Vouch that you are trustworthy and will in fact pay in 15 years if I win the bet.
Thanks for writing this up. It’s pretty clear to me that you aren’t modeling me particularly well, and that it would take a very long time to resolve this, which I’m not particularly willing to do right now.
I’ll take that bet. Here’s a proposal: I send you $100 today, and in 15 years if you can’t show me an article in a reputable mainstream political science journal that mentions this event, then you send me an inflation-adjusted $1000. This is conditional on finding an arbiter I trust (perhaps Ben) who will:
Adjudicate whether it is an “article in a reputable mainstream political science journal that mentions this event”
Compute the inflation-adjusted amount, should that be necessary
Vouch that you are trustworthy and will in fact pay in 15 years if I win the bet.