I also think it’s weird that The Sequences, Thinking Fast and Slow, and other rationalist works such as Good and Real all emphasize gathering data and trusting data over intuition, because human intuition is fallible, subject to bias, taken in by narratives, etc… and then we’re celebrating someone who did the opposite of all that and got away with it.
The steelman interpretation is that Petrov made a Bayesian assessment, starting with a prior that a nuclear attack (and especially a nuclear attack with five missiles) was an extremely unlikely scenario, and appropriately discounted the evidence being given to him by the satellite detection system because the detection system was new and therefore prone to false alarms, and found that the posterior probability of attack did not justify his passing the attack warning on. However, this seems to me like a post-hoc justification of a decision that was made on intuition.
He thought it unlikely that the US would launch a strike with 5 ICBMs only, since a first strike would likely be comprehensive. As far as Bayesian reasoning goes, this seems pretty good.
Also, a big part of being good at Bayesian reasoning is refining your ability to reason even when you can’t gather data, when you can’t view the same scenario “redrawn” ten thousand times and gather statistics on it.
ETA: the satellite radar operators reported all-clear; however, instructions were to only make decisions based on the computer readouts.
I’ve replied below with a similar question, but do you have a source on “satellite radar operators”? The published accounts of the incident imply that Petrov was the satellite radar operator. He followed up with the operators of the ground-based radar later, but at the time he made the decision to stay silent, he had no data that contradicted what the satellite sensors were saying.
As far as the Bayesian justification goes, I think this is bottom-line reasoning. We’re starting with, “Petrov made a good decision,” and looking backwards in order to find reasons as to why his reasoning was reasonable and justifiable.
A group of satellite radar operators told him they had registered no missiles.
BBC
I don’t see why this is bottom-line reasoning. It is in fact implausible that the US would first-strike with only five missiles, as that would leave the USSR able to respond.
I also think it’s weird that The Sequences, Thinking Fast and Slow, and other rationalist works such as Good and Real all emphasize gathering data and trusting data over intuition, because human intuition is fallible, subject to bias, taken in by narratives, etc… and then we’re celebrating someone who did the opposite of all that and got away with it.
The steelman interpretation is that Petrov made a Bayesian assessment, starting with a prior that a nuclear attack (and especially a nuclear attack with five missiles) was an extremely unlikely scenario, and appropriately discounted the evidence being given to him by the satellite detection system because the detection system was new and therefore prone to false alarms, and found that the posterior probability of attack did not justify his passing the attack warning on. However, this seems to me like a post-hoc justification of a decision that was made on intuition.
He thought it unlikely that the US would launch a strike with 5 ICBMs only, since a first strike would likely be comprehensive. As far as Bayesian reasoning goes, this seems pretty good.
Also, a big part of being good at Bayesian reasoning is refining your ability to reason even when you can’t gather data, when you can’t view the same scenario “redrawn” ten thousand times and gather statistics on it.
ETA: the satellite radar operators reported all-clear; however, instructions were to only make decisions based on the computer readouts.
I’ve replied below with a similar question, but do you have a source on “satellite radar operators”? The published accounts of the incident imply that Petrov was the satellite radar operator. He followed up with the operators of the ground-based radar later, but at the time he made the decision to stay silent, he had no data that contradicted what the satellite sensors were saying.
As far as the Bayesian justification goes, I think this is bottom-line reasoning. We’re starting with, “Petrov made a good decision,” and looking backwards in order to find reasons as to why his reasoning was reasonable and justifiable.
I don’t see why this is bottom-line reasoning. It is in fact implausible that the US would first-strike with only five missiles, as that would leave the USSR able to respond.