a) either nobody used their launch codes, and you can trust 125 nice & smart individuals not to take unilateralist action—so we can avoid armageddon if we just have coordinated communities with the right people;
b) nobody used their launch codes, because these 125 are very like-minded people (selection bias), there’s no immediate incentive to blow it up (except for some offers about counterfactual donations), but some incentive to avoid it (honor!… hope? Prove EDT, UDT...?). It doesn’t model the problem of MAD, and surely it doesn’t model Petrov’s dilemma—he went against express orders to minimize the chance of nuclear war, so risking his career (and possibly his life).
c) or this a hoax. That’s what I would do; I wouldn’t risk a day of LW just to prove our honor (sorry, I grew up in a tough neighborhood and have problems with trusting others).
My point is: I think (b) and (c) are way more likely than (a), so I’d use the launch codes, and take the risk of ostracism, if I had them. I think it would yield higher expected-utility; as I said, I wouldn’t risk a day of LW to prove our honor, but I’d do it to prove you shouldn’t play Petrov lightly.
Please, correct me if I’m wrong.
P.S.: (d) this allows anyone to claim having launch codes and mugger others into counterfactual donations—which is brilliant.
So far, LW is still online. It means:
a) either nobody used their launch codes, and you can trust 125 nice & smart individuals not to take unilateralist action—so we can avoid armageddon if we just have coordinated communities with the right people;
b) nobody used their launch codes, because these 125 are very like-minded people (selection bias), there’s no immediate incentive to blow it up (except for some offers about counterfactual donations), but some incentive to avoid it (honor!… hope? Prove EDT, UDT...?). It doesn’t model the problem of MAD, and surely it doesn’t model Petrov’s dilemma—he went against express orders to minimize the chance of nuclear war, so risking his career (and possibly his life).
c) or this a hoax. That’s what I would do; I wouldn’t risk a day of LW just to prove our honor (sorry, I grew up in a tough neighborhood and have problems with trusting others).
My point is: I think (b) and (c) are way more likely than (a), so I’d use the launch codes, and take the risk of ostracism, if I had them. I think it would yield higher expected-utility; as I said, I wouldn’t risk a day of LW to prove our honor, but I’d do it to prove you shouldn’t play Petrov lightly.
Please, correct me if I’m wrong.
P.S.: (d) this allows anyone to claim having launch codes and mugger others into counterfactual donations—which is brilliant.