But humans define “likely” in part via considerations of simplicity. This doesn’t guarantee that the long run average of percentage correct conclusions will decline with complexity. But it makes it more likely.
Whether a hypothesis turns out to be a better match for reality than another hypothesis does not depend on how humans define “likely”.
But humans define “likely” in part via considerations of simplicity. This doesn’t guarantee that the long run average of percentage correct conclusions will decline with complexity. But it makes it more likely.
Whether a hypothesis turns out to be a better match for reality than another hypothesis does not depend on how humans define “likely”.