it is standard in a rational discourse to include and address opposing arguments, provided your audience includes anyone other than supporters already. At a minimum, one should state an objection and cite a discussion of it. Here is a number of points that might have be worth mentioning:
We may one day design a machine that surpasses human skill at designing artificial intelligences.
Are there any alternatives?
superintelligence represents an ‘event horizon’ beyond which humans cannot model the future
We have trouble modeling the future already (our world is probably rather unlike what experts had predicted 25 years ago). If the horizon is the limit of the shrinking predictability timescale, what is the arguments for and against this scale being a monotonically decreasing function?
Technological progress enables even faster technological progress.
Similar to the one above. Sometimes is slows down, halts or reverses for decades or centuries.
I assume that your citations address these questions, but it is useful to state the obvious objections, so the reader is not left hanging.
A technical point:
He made an analogy to the event horizon of a black hole, beyond which the predictive power of physics at the gravitational singularity breaks down.
Physics works mighty fine at the event horizon, predicting what happens to something crossing it with any desired accuracy. It only breaks down at or near the singularity, whether or not it is shrouded by a horizon (not all singularities have to be). While the event horizon is a cute popsci analogy, it should be treated as such, without making false physical statements.
Vinge’s 1993 article doesn’t mention black holes or event horizons; attributing “event horizon” to him in quotes is certainly wrong, at least if it’s referring to that article. Wikipedia claims Vinge said something about black holes, but it cites SingInst’s “What is the Singularity?” for that claim, which in turn doesn’t cite anything. Did the black hole analogy originate in some other Vinge writing?
it is standard in a rational discourse to include and address opposing arguments, provided your audience includes anyone other than supporters already. At a minimum, one should state an objection and cite a discussion of it.
This is not a rational discourse but part of an FAQ, providing explanations/definitions. Counterarguments would be misplaced.
it is standard in a rational discourse to include and address opposing arguments, provided your audience includes anyone other than supporters already. At a minimum, one should state an objection and cite a discussion of it. Here is a number of points that might have be worth mentioning:
Are there any alternatives?
We have trouble modeling the future already (our world is probably rather unlike what experts had predicted 25 years ago). If the horizon is the limit of the shrinking predictability timescale, what is the arguments for and against this scale being a monotonically decreasing function?
Similar to the one above. Sometimes is slows down, halts or reverses for decades or centuries.
I assume that your citations address these questions, but it is useful to state the obvious objections, so the reader is not left hanging.
A technical point:
Physics works mighty fine at the event horizon, predicting what happens to something crossing it with any desired accuracy. It only breaks down at or near the singularity, whether or not it is shrouded by a horizon (not all singularities have to be). While the event horizon is a cute popsci analogy, it should be treated as such, without making false physical statements.
Agreed on the technical point at the end.
Vinge’s 1993 article doesn’t mention black holes or event horizons; attributing “event horizon” to him in quotes is certainly wrong, at least if it’s referring to that article. Wikipedia claims Vinge said something about black holes, but it cites SingInst’s “What is the Singularity?” for that claim, which in turn doesn’t cite anything. Did the black hole analogy originate in some other Vinge writing?
This is not a rational discourse but part of an FAQ, providing explanations/definitions. Counterarguments would be misplaced.