You should expect that (even in our crazy world) there are some people who hold a set of beliefs such that to disagree with them is to be wrong. You prior for being that person is low
I am naturally distrustful of such conclusions
but you have some evidence
my experiences in schools made it very hard.
that you feel is not enough to overcome the prior improbability and produce a decent posterior? No, according to the line
I think the most likely thing is that they’re all confused by biases
you do have such a posterior.
Ah. You’re worried that the evidence you have does not sufficiently distinguish between ‘I am rational’ and ‘I suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect’. In that case, think about what evidence would sufficiently distinguish ‘I am right a lot’ and ‘I think I am right a lot’. This recommendation is a good place to start.
You should expect that (even in our crazy world) there are some people who hold a set of beliefs such that to disagree with them is to be wrong. You prior for being that person is low
but you have some evidence
that you feel is not enough to overcome the prior improbability and produce a decent posterior? No, according to the line
you do have such a posterior.
Ah. You’re worried that the evidence you have does not sufficiently distinguish between ‘I am rational’ and ‘I suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect’. In that case, think about what evidence would sufficiently distinguish ‘I am right a lot’ and ‘I think I am right a lot’. This recommendation is a good place to start.