200 mile range. At legal speeds, that is just under four hours of driving on the highway. Try and recall the last time you did more than that in one day?
No need to try, I drive long distances on a fairly regular basis.
The actual pattern of use for everyone in their day to day lives
I trust you’ve heard of the typical mind fallacy? People are different. Trying to pretend everyone does the same thing isn’t particularly useful.
Assuming gas drops in price by half
And assuming electricity costs go up by how much? One reason gas costs so much is because it’s a source of revenue for the government. Do you think the government will just forget about this revenue or maybe electric won’t be so cheap after all? You are predicting a huge spike in demand, right?
nobody is going to buy a gasoline car.
LOL. OK, then, it’s a simple way to become rich. Short the stocks of everyone who depends on ICE engines—engine manufacturers, most obviously, but there’s a large ecosystem around that—and go long Tesla and its ecosystem. In ten years you should be swimming in money.
On a bit more serious note, clearly electric cars make sense for some people and some uses. They also clearly do NOT make sense for other people and other uses. Of course there will be more electric cars on the road in ten years. But there will be ICE cars as well.
In ten? sure. As I said, 80% penetration. It might be higher, but that /does/ depend on better batteries than conservative forward extrapolation of trends predict. Most of them will be used, because you will be able to get a used ice car for junk value and a dollar, and then junk them the first time they have any kind of major problem.
And the government wont be able to tax the electricity to the extent they do gas—no good way to do that without being lynched because electrons are electrons. Most likely, we will wind up with.. I dunno, ridiculously high taxes on tyres?
So, to take the used cars out of the equation, you’re saying that in 10 years no one will be producing ICE cars..? Or, to avoid absolutes, given 80% penetration and the existence of used cars, do you claim that in ten years something like 95% of cars produced will be purely electric?
And the government wont be able to tax the electricity to the extent they do gas—no good way to do that without being lynched because electrons are electrons.
More or less. Technology transitions have reinforcing feedback loops—once the transition starts, the bottom falls out of the market for used ICE cars (the junk value and a dollar thing..) which makes new ICE cars very difficult indeed to sell. After a couple years of that, gasoline is no longer sold in nearly as many places...
It’s not blind optimism—look, the oil barons currently bribing the US congress (and various european politicians..) fall into two categories; “Marginal producers” and “Funny looking/weirdly dressed foreigners”. That means that once the price of oil falls to any significant extent, the political lobby for oil rapidly gets reduced to 90+% “Guys in turbans with no vote”. That is an interest group which politicians will loose absolutely no sleep over burning all bridges with. So there shouldn’t be any pressure from the top to keep the ICE alive artificially. That will cost revenue, yes, but it will save consumers lots of money. Which they will spend. And that will create revenue, and reduce expeditures, and again.. Being the politician that steps up and says “I know you just saved thousands of dollars that were heading down to the kingdom of sand, but I just cant stand to see a commoner with money so I’m going to slap a 3 thousand dollar surcharge on your electric bill” is a good way to end up on a literal pike. No matter how much economy speak you try to dress it up in.
Well, we’ll see. In the meantime, Chevy Volt, an electric car selling for $27K (with applicable tax credits, that is, a government bribe to make you buy it) is selling rather poorly, I believe.
Being the politician that steps up and says
Heh. No, the politicians have gotten quite good at saying “Look at the shiny!” while they’re rifling through you wallet..
And the united kingdoms are still happily paying the poll tax, the american war of independence never happened.
Some taxes are much more.. annoying.. to the general public than others. And in this case, what you are envisioning just can’t happen. You can not collect high taxes on gasoline and electricity both—the transition is fast, not instant, and so if you do that low income people who are obliged to use gasoline will actually run out of money all-together. And riot.
In theory, it is possible to stop taxing gas and start taxing electricity instead, but that is so painfully stupid an idea you wouldn’t be elected dogcatcher after suggesting it.
You can not collect high taxes on gasoline and electricity both
Well a lot of European countries are doing just that. Or rather they have “sustainable energy” mandates, which from the consumer’s point of view function as a high tax on electricity.
Not high enough to make gasoline competitive with electricity on price. which is the subject under debate. Not that I’m happy about the mandates, because they have failed. The only policies that have ever worked to clean up electricity generation are dams and nukes. Barring technological breakthroughs, I fear they are the only ones that are ever going to work outside of a band near the equator where solar might eventually become sane.
No need to try, I drive long distances on a fairly regular basis.
Your estimate of half an hour for a full recharge also seems to have nothing to do with the current reality.
I trust you’ve heard of the typical mind fallacy? People are different. Trying to pretend everyone does the same thing isn’t particularly useful.
And assuming electricity costs go up by how much? One reason gas costs so much is because it’s a source of revenue for the government. Do you think the government will just forget about this revenue or maybe electric won’t be so cheap after all? You are predicting a huge spike in demand, right?
LOL. OK, then, it’s a simple way to become rich. Short the stocks of everyone who depends on ICE engines—engine manufacturers, most obviously, but there’s a large ecosystem around that—and go long Tesla and its ecosystem. In ten years you should be swimming in money.
On a bit more serious note, clearly electric cars make sense for some people and some uses. They also clearly do NOT make sense for other people and other uses. Of course there will be more electric cars on the road in ten years. But there will be ICE cars as well.
In ten? sure. As I said, 80% penetration. It might be higher, but that /does/ depend on better batteries than conservative forward extrapolation of trends predict. Most of them will be used, because you will be able to get a used ice car for junk value and a dollar, and then junk them the first time they have any kind of major problem.
And the government wont be able to tax the electricity to the extent they do gas—no good way to do that without being lynched because electrons are electrons. Most likely, we will wind up with.. I dunno, ridiculously high taxes on tyres?
So, to take the used cars out of the equation, you’re saying that in 10 years no one will be producing ICE cars..? Or, to avoid absolutes, given 80% penetration and the existence of used cars, do you claim that in ten years something like 95% of cars produced will be purely electric?
I wish I shared your optimism :-/
More or less. Technology transitions have reinforcing feedback loops—once the transition starts, the bottom falls out of the market for used ICE cars (the junk value and a dollar thing..) which makes new ICE cars very difficult indeed to sell. After a couple years of that, gasoline is no longer sold in nearly as many places...
It’s not blind optimism—look, the oil barons currently bribing the US congress (and various european politicians..) fall into two categories; “Marginal producers” and “Funny looking/weirdly dressed foreigners”. That means that once the price of oil falls to any significant extent, the political lobby for oil rapidly gets reduced to 90+% “Guys in turbans with no vote”. That is an interest group which politicians will loose absolutely no sleep over burning all bridges with. So there shouldn’t be any pressure from the top to keep the ICE alive artificially. That will cost revenue, yes, but it will save consumers lots of money. Which they will spend. And that will create revenue, and reduce expeditures, and again.. Being the politician that steps up and says “I know you just saved thousands of dollars that were heading down to the kingdom of sand, but I just cant stand to see a commoner with money so I’m going to slap a 3 thousand dollar surcharge on your electric bill” is a good way to end up on a literal pike. No matter how much economy speak you try to dress it up in.
Well, we’ll see. In the meantime, Chevy Volt, an electric car selling for $27K (with applicable tax credits, that is, a government bribe to make you buy it) is selling rather poorly, I believe.
Heh. No, the politicians have gotten quite good at saying “Look at the shiny!” while they’re rifling through you wallet..
And the united kingdoms are still happily paying the poll tax, the american war of independence never happened.
Some taxes are much more.. annoying.. to the general public than others. And in this case, what you are envisioning just can’t happen. You can not collect high taxes on gasoline and electricity both—the transition is fast, not instant, and so if you do that low income people who are obliged to use gasoline will actually run out of money all-together. And riot. In theory, it is possible to stop taxing gas and start taxing electricity instead, but that is so painfully stupid an idea you wouldn’t be elected dogcatcher after suggesting it.
Well a lot of European countries are doing just that. Or rather they have “sustainable energy” mandates, which from the consumer’s point of view function as a high tax on electricity.
Not high enough to make gasoline competitive with electricity on price. which is the subject under debate. Not that I’m happy about the mandates, because they have failed. The only policies that have ever worked to clean up electricity generation are dams and nukes. Barring technological breakthroughs, I fear they are the only ones that are ever going to work outside of a band near the equator where solar might eventually become sane.