To be honest, this thread has gone on long enough that I think we should end it here. It seems to me that you are quite confused about this whole issue, though I guess from your perspective it seems like I am the one who is confused. I considered asking a third person to try looking at this thread, but I decided it wasn’t worth calling in a favour.
I made a slight edit to my description of Counterfactual Prisoner’s Dilemma, but I don’t think this will really help you understand:
Omega, a perfect predictor, flips a coin and tell you how it came up. If if comes up heads, Omega asks you for $100, then pays you $10,000 if it predict you would have paid if it had come up tails. If it comes up tails, Omega asks you for $100, then pays you $10,000 if it predicts you would have paid if it had come up heads. In this case it was heads.
To be honest, this thread has gone on long enough that I think we should end it here. It seems to me that you are quite confused about this whole issue, though I guess from your perspective it seems like I am the one who is confused. I considered asking a third person to try looking at this thread, but I decided it wasn’t worth calling in a favour.
I made a slight edit to my description of Counterfactual Prisoner’s Dilemma, but I don’t think this will really help you understand:
Ok, if you want to clarify—I’d like to—we can have a call, or discuss in other ways. I’ll contact you somewhere else.