I think that I predict the opposite (conditional on what exactly is being predicted).
What exactly would count as a GPT-3 moment for fusion? How about an experiment demonstrating reactor-like conditions? This is roughly equivalent to what I referred to as ‘getting fusion’ in my book review.
My prediction is that, after Commonwealth Fusion Systems gets Q > 5 on SPARC, they will continue to supply or plan to supply HTS tape to at least 3 other fusion startups.
I’d say that the ability to produce more energy overall than what is being spend on the whole cycle would count as a “GPT-3 moment”. No price constraints, so it does not need to reach the level of “economically feasible”, but it should stop being “net negative” energy-wise (when one honestly counts all energy inputs needed to make it work).
I, of course, don’t know how to translate Q into this. GPT-4o tells me that it thinks that Q=10 is what is approximately needed for that (for “Engineering Break-even (reactor-level energy balance)”), at least for some of the designs, and Q in the neighborhood of 20-30 is what’s needed for economic viability, but I don’t really know if these are good estimates.
But assuming that these estimates are good, Q passing 10 would count as the GPT-3 moment.
What happens then might depend on the economic forecast (what’s the demand for energy, what are expected profits, and so on). If they only expect to make profits typical for public utilities, and the whole thing is still heavily oriented towards publicly regulated setups, I would expect continuing collaboration.
If they expect some kind of super-profits, with market share being really important and with expectations of chunks of it being really lucrative, then I would not bet on continuing collaboration too much...
I would also make the same prediction for Q > 10. Or when CFS first sells electricity to the grid. These will be farther into the future, but I do not think that this culture will have changed by then.
I think that I predict the opposite (conditional on what exactly is being predicted).
What exactly would count as a GPT-3 moment for fusion? How about an experiment demonstrating reactor-like conditions? This is roughly equivalent to what I referred to as ‘getting fusion’ in my book review.
My prediction is that, after Commonwealth Fusion Systems gets Q > 5 on SPARC, they will continue to supply or plan to supply HTS tape to at least 3 other fusion startups.
I’d say that the ability to produce more energy overall than what is being spend on the whole cycle would count as a “GPT-3 moment”. No price constraints, so it does not need to reach the level of “economically feasible”, but it should stop being “net negative” energy-wise (when one honestly counts all energy inputs needed to make it work).
I, of course, don’t know how to translate Q into this. GPT-4o tells me that it thinks that Q=10 is what is approximately needed for that (for “Engineering Break-even (reactor-level energy balance)”), at least for some of the designs, and Q in the neighborhood of 20-30 is what’s needed for economic viability, but I don’t really know if these are good estimates.
But assuming that these estimates are good, Q passing 10 would count as the GPT-3 moment.
What happens then might depend on the economic forecast (what’s the demand for energy, what are expected profits, and so on). If they only expect to make profits typical for public utilities, and the whole thing is still heavily oriented towards publicly regulated setups, I would expect continuing collaboration.
If they expect some kind of super-profits, with market share being really important and with expectations of chunks of it being really lucrative, then I would not bet on continuing collaboration too much...
I would also make the same prediction for Q > 10. Or when CFS first sells electricity to the grid. These will be farther into the future, but I do not think that this culture will have changed by then.