I basically agree with SilasBarta. If you look carefully, what’s going on in climate science is absolutely apalling.
One can ask a simple probability question: Given that a climate simulation matches history, what is the probability that it will accurately predict the future?
Another question: What evidence is there that climate simulations are accurate besides the fact that they match history?
And another question: If you take 10 or 15 iffy climate simulations, average them, and then use a bootstrap or equivalent method to produce a 95% confidence interval, are you actually accomplishing anything?
I basically agree with SilasBarta. If you look carefully, what’s going on in climate science is absolutely apalling.
One can ask a simple probability question: Given that a climate simulation matches history, what is the probability that it will accurately predict the future?
Another question: What evidence is there that climate simulations are accurate besides the fact that they match history?
And another question: If you take 10 or 15 iffy climate simulations, average them, and then use a bootstrap or equivalent method to produce a 95% confidence interval, are you actually accomplishing anything?