One of the common tropes around here is that zero and one are not probabilities (that’s probability in the Bayesian sense). When Eliezer writes “it’s over”, he doesn’t mean that no evidence could convince him otherwise; he just means that he assesses the probability of observing such evidence as negligible in light of the currently available evidence. (Or at least, that’s my understanding.)
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One of the common tropes around here is that zero and one are not probabilities (that’s probability in the Bayesian sense). When Eliezer writes “it’s over”, he doesn’t mean that no evidence could convince him otherwise; he just means that he assesses the probability of observing such evidence as negligible in light of the currently available evidence. (Or at least, that’s my understanding.)