I have two reference classes—one for AGWers’ statements about climate which I estimate to be almost all true, and another for AGWers’ statements about proper policy which I estimate to be almost all false.
I think you’re exactly right, and the problem is that people are often so partisan that they don’t even think of this or understand it as a possibility. Unfortunately, this problem isn’t just limited to AGW. I see it in many discussions of policy questions, where people argue about which statistics are right instead of saying, “Assume these factual statements are true: what is the proper policy?”
I think you’re exactly right, and the problem is that people are often so partisan that they don’t even think of this or understand it as a possibility. Unfortunately, this problem isn’t just limited to AGW. I see it in many discussions of policy questions, where people argue about which statistics are right instead of saying, “Assume these factual statements are true: what is the proper policy?”