This reminds me strongly of Robin Hanson’s pre-priors work. I guess the pre-prior has to do with the reflective belief, and replacing your prior over the average prior you could have been born with must be a tempting non-Bayesian update (assuming the framework makes any sense which I’m not sure it does).
I had it in mind as a possible topic when writing, but it didn’t make it into the post. I think I might be able to put together a model that makes more sense than the original version, but I haven’t done it yet.
This reminds me strongly of Robin Hanson’s pre-priors work. I guess the pre-prior has to do with the reflective belief, and replacing your prior over the average prior you could have been born with must be a tempting non-Bayesian update (assuming the framework makes any sense which I’m not sure it does).
I had it in mind as a possible topic when writing, but it didn’t make it into the post. I think I might be able to put together a model that makes more sense than the original version, but I haven’t done it yet.