Some, at least, of these highly politically partisan hot-button issues have the property that most people don;t have a reason for caring whether they’re true or not. In which cases, shrug might be the reasonable response.
Possibly the idea of this thread is that we’re not supposed to mention any real examples, go avoid gettin g caught up in culture wars.
I can think of examples where even if I am going to do 9or not do) something based on whether the claim is trur of not… (a) the risk of doing X if claim is true seems small’(b) the cost of doing X if the claim is false is small (c) evidence for or against the claim looks really weak. So, shrug.
e.g. (true story) I am in the emergency room with tachycardia caused by graves disease. One of the ER docs and the endocrinologist have a really deeply technical argument over whether administration of Hartmann;s solutipn via IV is a plus or minus in my situation. Listening go this, I gather that, really, there is not much in it. Nurse would like to know if she can go ahead and stick the IV drip in my arm. Shrug. Whatever. You have my patient consent for that procedure, yes.
Example chosen because (a) I have really, absolutely no idea what the optimal action is here; (b) I have reason to belive that the risk is kind of low, anyway. (c) most commentors here wont have a strong opinion, so we wont have a flame war over what the right answer might be. Let it stand in for other cases where it is very, very unclear what the optimal action is.
This analogy might not work for all the things “dragons” is standing in for in this thread … but if I have a good statistical bound on the risk posed by dragons being low (but cannot, strictly speaking, rule out their existence entirely) I may conclude that a residual 1E-5 chance of running in to one to be a acceptable risk.
So if I see verified reports of AI causing a mass casualty incident with more that %500 million in damage (or whatever the threshold in the California bill is), I shall consider that evidence on a par to seeing Lake-Town get toasted by Smaug, and update accordingly.
Some, at least, of these highly politically partisan hot-button issues have the property that most people don;t have a reason for caring whether they’re true or not. In which cases, shrug might be the reasonable response.
Possibly the idea of this thread is that we’re not supposed to mention any real examples, go avoid gettin g caught up in culture wars.
I can think of examples where even if I am going to do 9or not do) something based on whether the claim is trur of not… (a) the risk of doing X if claim is true seems small’(b) the cost of doing X if the claim is false is small (c) evidence for or against the claim looks really weak. So, shrug.
e.g. (true story) I am in the emergency room with tachycardia caused by graves disease. One of the ER docs and the endocrinologist have a really deeply technical argument over whether administration of Hartmann;s solutipn via IV is a plus or minus in my situation. Listening go this, I gather that, really, there is not much in it. Nurse would like to know if she can go ahead and stick the IV drip in my arm. Shrug. Whatever. You have my patient consent for that procedure, yes.
Example chosen because (a) I have really, absolutely no idea what the optimal action is here; (b) I have reason to belive that the risk is kind of low, anyway. (c) most commentors here wont have a strong opinion, so we wont have a flame war over what the right answer might be. Let it stand in for other cases where it is very, very unclear what the optimal action is.
This analogy might not work for all the things “dragons” is standing in for in this thread … but if I have a good statistical bound on the risk posed by dragons being low (but cannot, strictly speaking, rule out their existence entirely) I may conclude that a residual 1E-5 chance of running in to one to be a acceptable risk.
So if I see verified reports of AI causing a mass casualty incident with more that %500 million in damage (or whatever the threshold in the California bill is), I shall consider that evidence on a par to seeing Lake-Town get toasted by Smaug, and update accordingly.