You reject the usefulness of the thought experiment, but I do not really understand why. Your reasons are that “in practice, there is almost always a possibility to affect the outcome” and that “the outcome is also almost never absolute”. With respect to the possibility to affect the outcome, I would say that I, as an individual, have to take most global situations as given.
I agree that, as an individual, one cannot affect most outcomes significantly. But if everybody assumes everybody does that too, then nobody does anything and thus definitely nothing happens/is done. Everybody contributes small parts, but those aggregate to change, because somebody will be at the right place at the right time to do something or ask the right question or bring the right people together etc. By ruling out the possibility you take this effect away and I have to price that into my model. If you or society wants to achieve something, you have to convice large numbers that change is possible and that it is important that everybody contributes. In management, that is called “building momentum.”
With respect to whether the outcome is “absolute”, you seem to mean that it is not a certain outcome or that not literally everybody would die. If it is just about the certainty, well, I included the subjective probability in the thought experiment. If it is about whether everybody dies, of course you can think of any probability distribution of outcomes, but what is gained by that?
You only added a binary probability between two options keeping both individually rigid. It would have worked better to provide distributions for number of people suffering or the effectiveness of influence etc. - but because I didn’t know you intention of the though experiment I couldn’t just assume those.
Then you say: “And on top of that, my presumed inability to influence outcomes somehow also doesn’t influence by interest in wanting to have children.” I do not really understand that sentence. Do you imply that powerful people naturally have a different amount of interest in wanting to have children? If so, why does that matter for the decision in the thought experiment?
No, I don’t want to make that specific implication. Maybe powerful people have a different interest in having children, but I don’t know those forces and would’t make a confident prediction either way.
But if I personally can’t influence results, I have to make assumptions as to why I can’t. Maybe I’m sick, maybe I’m legally limited in some way in your hypothetical. Such reasons would surely influence desire to have children.
I agree that, as an individual, one cannot affect most outcomes significantly. But if everybody assumes everybody does that too, then nobody does anything and thus definitely nothing happens/is done. Everybody contributes small parts, but those aggregate to change, because somebody will be at the right place at the right time to do something or ask the right question or bring the right people together etc. By ruling out the possibility you take this effect away and I have to price that into my model. If you or society wants to achieve something, you have to convice large numbers that change is possible and that it is important that everybody contributes. In management, that is called “building momentum.”
You only added a binary probability between two options keeping both individually rigid. It would have worked better to provide distributions for number of people suffering or the effectiveness of influence etc. - but because I didn’t know you intention of the though experiment I couldn’t just assume those.
No, I don’t want to make that specific implication. Maybe powerful people have a different interest in having children, but I don’t know those forces and would’t make a confident prediction either way.
But if I personally can’t influence results, I have to make assumptions as to why I can’t. Maybe I’m sick, maybe I’m legally limited in some way in your hypothetical. Such reasons would surely influence desire to have children.