This is a really nice analysis, thank you for posting it! The part I wonder about is what kind of “tricks” may become economically feasible for commercialization once shrinking the transistors hits physical limits. While that kind of physical design research isn’t my area, I’ve been led to believe there are some interesting possibilities that just haven’t been explored much because they cost a lot and “let’s just make it smaller next year” has traditionally been an easier R&D task.
Yeah, I also expect that there are some ways of compensating for the lack of miniaturization with other tech. I don’t think progress will literally come to a halt.
This is a really nice analysis, thank you for posting it! The part I wonder about is what kind of “tricks” may become economically feasible for commercialization once shrinking the transistors hits physical limits. While that kind of physical design research isn’t my area, I’ve been led to believe there are some interesting possibilities that just haven’t been explored much because they cost a lot and “let’s just make it smaller next year” has traditionally been an easier R&D task.
Yeah, I also expect that there are some ways of compensating for the lack of miniaturization with other tech. I don’t think progress will literally come to a halt.