As a specific example, I want to separate out something like “working at OpenAI” and “founding OpenAI”; my sense is that EY and others think that founding OpenAI in the first place did a major blow to the feasibility of coordination between AGI projects, and thus was pretty tragic from the “will human civilization make it” perspective. But it’s not obvious to me that choosing to get a job at OpenAI in 2022 is primarily connected to the question of whether or not OpenAI should be founded in 2015, and is instead primarily connected to the question of what projects they will do in 2022-2025. [The linked writing in the parent comment is about OpenAI in 2020, before ARC and Anthropic split out of it; I don’t have a great sense of the social value (or disvalue) of working at those three orgs today.]
As a specific example, I want to separate out something like “working at OpenAI” and “founding OpenAI”; my sense is that EY and others think that founding OpenAI in the first place did a major blow to the feasibility of coordination between AGI projects, and thus was pretty tragic from the “will human civilization make it” perspective. But it’s not obvious to me that choosing to get a job at OpenAI in 2022 is primarily connected to the question of whether or not OpenAI should be founded in 2015, and is instead primarily connected to the question of what projects they will do in 2022-2025. [The linked writing in the parent comment is about OpenAI in 2020, before ARC and Anthropic split out of it; I don’t have a great sense of the social value (or disvalue) of working at those three orgs today.]