I think that the big labs could be moved if the story was: “There will be a soft takeoff during which dozens of players will make critical decisions, and if the collective culture is supportive of the right approach (on alignment), then we will succeed, otherwise everyone will be dead and $GOOG will be $0.” The story of hard takeoffs and pivotal acts is just not compatible with the larger culture, and cannot be persuasive. Now there is the problem of epistemics: the soft takeoff model being convenient for persuasion reasons doesn’t make it true. But my opinion is that the soft takeoff model is more likely anyway.
I think that the big labs could be moved if the story was: “There will be a soft takeoff during which dozens of players will make critical decisions, and if the collective culture is supportive of the right approach (on alignment), then we will succeed, otherwise everyone will be dead and $GOOG will be $0.” The story of hard takeoffs and pivotal acts is just not compatible with the larger culture, and cannot be persuasive. Now there is the problem of epistemics: the soft takeoff model being convenient for persuasion reasons doesn’t make it true. But my opinion is that the soft takeoff model is more likely anyway.