if we don’t get it until 2040, then I’d be mildly surprised if any of them will be close enough to the cutting edge to be major players
Haven’t done any rigorous analysis, but it’s my impression that the field of tech giants has stabilized a bit in the last couple of decades. In that, once you become a tech giant now, you don’t drop out anymore. (Compare Microsoft’s trajectory post-Google to IBM’s post-Microsoft.)
I expect there to also be new tech giants by 2040. But I’d be surprised if all the current trillion dollar market cap companies are irrelevant by then.
That’s thinking about them as tech companies, specifically. Rather than evaluating their current AI plays. But I think the fact that the tech cos have so much engineering talent means they’re not likely to just totally miss the AI trend.
Haven’t done any rigorous analysis, but it’s my impression that the field of tech giants has stabilized a bit in the last couple of decades. In that, once you become a tech giant now, you don’t drop out anymore. (Compare Microsoft’s trajectory post-Google to IBM’s post-Microsoft.)
I expect there to also be new tech giants by 2040. But I’d be surprised if all the current trillion dollar market cap companies are irrelevant by then.
That’s thinking about them as tech companies, specifically. Rather than evaluating their current AI plays. But I think the fact that the tech cos have so much engineering talent means they’re not likely to just totally miss the AI trend.