The ascertainment ratio right now seems very clearly a little under 1⁄3 consistent with Covid-19 projections. We know that the infection to death ratio is about 0.7% to 1% for a population like the US from numerous studies of closely followed populations. The lagged IFR is about 3%. Close enough to 3 point something.
I am also pretty sure that every day of delay is only preventing a few hundred infections right now given the inevitable snafus about getting the vaccine out and that eventually manufacturing rather than jabbing will become the bottleneck, whereas being perceived to rush by the general population will probably decrease the number who actually get it more than that.
The ascertainment ratio right now seems very clearly a little under 1⁄3 consistent with Covid-19 projections. We know that the infection to death ratio is about 0.7% to 1% for a population like the US from numerous studies of closely followed populations. The lagged IFR is about 3%. Close enough to 3 point something.
I am also pretty sure that every day of delay is only preventing a few hundred infections right now given the inevitable snafus about getting the vaccine out and that eventually manufacturing rather than jabbing will become the bottleneck, whereas being perceived to rush by the general population will probably decrease the number who actually get it more than that.