I’m still not seeing a big innovation here. I’m pretty sure most researchers who look at the Drake equation think “huge sensitivity to parameterization.”
If we have a 5 parameter drake equation then number of civilizations scales with X^5, so if X comes in at 0.01, we’ve got a 1e-10 probability of detectable civilization formation. But if we’ve got a 10 parameter Drake equation and X comes in at 0.01 then it implies a 1e-20 probability. (extraordinary smaller)
So yes, it has a a huge sensitivity, but it is primarily a constructed sensitivity. All the Drake equation really tells us is that we don’t know very much and it probably won’t be useful until we can get N above one for more of the parameters.
The difference is that before people looked at the Drake equation, and thought that even with the uncertainty, there was a very low probability of no aliens, and this corrects that assumption.
It’s a bit more than that. I think Jan’s comment is the best summary.
I’m still not seeing a big innovation here. I’m pretty sure most researchers who look at the Drake equation think “huge sensitivity to parameterization.”
If we have a 5 parameter drake equation then number of civilizations scales with X^5, so if X comes in at 0.01, we’ve got a 1e-10 probability of detectable civilization formation. But if we’ve got a 10 parameter Drake equation and X comes in at 0.01 then it implies a 1e-20 probability. (extraordinary smaller)
So yes, it has a a huge sensitivity, but it is primarily a constructed sensitivity. All the Drake equation really tells us is that we don’t know very much and it probably won’t be useful until we can get N above one for more of the parameters.
The difference is that before people looked at the Drake equation, and thought that even with the uncertainty, there was a very low probability of no aliens, and this corrects that assumption.