It’s not non-zero for all X. If I claim that “according to QM, there’s a non-zero probability two entangled particles have the same spin”, one could just produce the math necessary to show that this claim is false. Likewise, if my claim about QM saying that the probability of an angel appearing is non-zero, I’m sure it’s possible to do that (it might be difficult, though). The same with those Boltzmann brains, but physicists seem to think that their probability really is non-zero. Solipsism, on the other hand, is completely immune to such attacks.
The important thing here is really whether what I’m claiming follows from the math of quantum mechanics or not. Physicists don’t try to falsify every single prediction that quantum mechanics makes, because they already think there’s enough evidence (well, most do) that the theory is correct. There obviously is no such evidence for solipsism.
The probability of our current understanding of QM to be false is non-zero, too.
Things that QM forbids might be allowed by the next theory that follows it (what does Newtonian physics say about quantum tunneling? Absolutely impossible.)
You are granting QM the status of absolute, final truth and I see no reason for that. There is non-zero probability that it is mistaken :-P
I tried to be careful about this. In an earlier post, I said: “But do not that I’m not saying that the angelic being will in fact appear somewhere! That one would follow from quantum mechanics being a complete theory and MWI (or QIT) being a correct interpretation, both of which are surely debatable (and even then it would only happen in a very small minority of all worlds).”
That said, I think it’s quite a radical position to assign much probability to the possibility that QM is wrong. So far it’s consistent with all the evidence that we have, and there’s no evidence to support any of the competing theories or modifications, like objective-collapse theories. Because of this, a hypothetical improved theory might also contain all the weird stuff that QM does, plus some more.
On the other hand, I sometimes wonder if the people working on these theories would be more inclined to question them if they thought more about all the absurd implications they potentially have. (They might not: I recall reading a statement somewhere by Steven Weinberg who thought that eternal inflation or some other multiverse-predicting theory is a miserable theory, but the best that there is and possibly correct.)
I think it’s quite a radical position to assign much probability to the possibility that QM is wrong.
I don’t think so, with the slight change from “QM is wrong” to “QM is limited in its applicability, just like Newtonian physics”.
But in any case, in this thread you operate in a black-and-white world of “zero probability” and “non-zero probability”. I am pointing out that the set of zero-probability events is empty.
I don’t think so, with the slight change from “QM is wrong” to “QM is limited in its applicability, just like Newtonian physics”.
Fair enough. I suppose one could say that the problems with combining QM and general relativity suggest that QM needs to be modified, but so far we don’t have experimental evidence for anything but pure QM, I believe.
But in any case, in this thread you operate in a black-and-white world of “zero probability” and “non-zero probability”. I am pointing out that the set of zero-probability events is empty.
Well, our discussion spun off from a comment where lisper claimed that surely there are situations where death is inevitable. I countered by saying that as far as I know, there’s always some way to survive that has a non-zero probability according to quantum mechanics, so that’s where the emphasis on zero vs non-zero probability originally came. Note that the view advocated in the original post views the formalism of quantum mechanics as an accurate description at all scales and also says that all events with a non-zero probability will happen (but that the ones we end up not observing are not something we should care about).
It’s not non-zero for all X. If I claim that “according to QM, there’s a non-zero probability two entangled particles have the same spin”, one could just produce the math necessary to show that this claim is false. Likewise, if my claim about QM saying that the probability of an angel appearing is non-zero, I’m sure it’s possible to do that (it might be difficult, though). The same with those Boltzmann brains, but physicists seem to think that their probability really is non-zero. Solipsism, on the other hand, is completely immune to such attacks.
The important thing here is really whether what I’m claiming follows from the math of quantum mechanics or not. Physicists don’t try to falsify every single prediction that quantum mechanics makes, because they already think there’s enough evidence (well, most do) that the theory is correct. There obviously is no such evidence for solipsism.
The probability of our current understanding of QM to be false is non-zero, too.
Things that QM forbids might be allowed by the next theory that follows it (what does Newtonian physics say about quantum tunneling? Absolutely impossible.)
You are granting QM the status of absolute, final truth and I see no reason for that. There is non-zero probability that it is mistaken :-P
I tried to be careful about this. In an earlier post, I said: “But do not that I’m not saying that the angelic being will in fact appear somewhere! That one would follow from quantum mechanics being a complete theory and MWI (or QIT) being a correct interpretation, both of which are surely debatable (and even then it would only happen in a very small minority of all worlds).”
That said, I think it’s quite a radical position to assign much probability to the possibility that QM is wrong. So far it’s consistent with all the evidence that we have, and there’s no evidence to support any of the competing theories or modifications, like objective-collapse theories. Because of this, a hypothetical improved theory might also contain all the weird stuff that QM does, plus some more.
On the other hand, I sometimes wonder if the people working on these theories would be more inclined to question them if they thought more about all the absurd implications they potentially have. (They might not: I recall reading a statement somewhere by Steven Weinberg who thought that eternal inflation or some other multiverse-predicting theory is a miserable theory, but the best that there is and possibly correct.)
I don’t think so, with the slight change from “QM is wrong” to “QM is limited in its applicability, just like Newtonian physics”.
But in any case, in this thread you operate in a black-and-white world of “zero probability” and “non-zero probability”. I am pointing out that the set of zero-probability events is empty.
Fair enough. I suppose one could say that the problems with combining QM and general relativity suggest that QM needs to be modified, but so far we don’t have experimental evidence for anything but pure QM, I believe.
Well, our discussion spun off from a comment where lisper claimed that surely there are situations where death is inevitable. I countered by saying that as far as I know, there’s always some way to survive that has a non-zero probability according to quantum mechanics, so that’s where the emphasis on zero vs non-zero probability originally came. Note that the view advocated in the original post views the formalism of quantum mechanics as an accurate description at all scales and also says that all events with a non-zero probability will happen (but that the ones we end up not observing are not something we should care about).