Another weird takeaway is the timeline. I think my intuition whenever I hear about a good idea currently happening is that because it’s happening right now, it’s probably too late for me to get in on it at all because everyone already knows about it. I think that intuition is overweighted. If there’s a spectrum from ideas being fully saturated to completely empty of people working on them, when good ideas break in the news they are probably closer to the latter than I give them credit for being. At least, I need to update in that direction.
I think this is caused by the fact that we lack tooling to adequately assess the amount of free-energy available in new markets sparked by new ideas. Currently it seems the only gauge we have is media attention and investment announcements.
Taking the time to assess an opportunity is operationally expensive and I think I’ve optimized to accept that there’s probably little opportunity given that everyone else is observing the same thing. However, I’m not sure that it makes sense to adjust my optimization without first increasing my efficiency in assessing opportunities.
Another weird takeaway is the timeline. I think my intuition whenever I hear about a good idea currently happening is that because it’s happening right now, it’s probably too late for me to get in on it at all because everyone already knows about it. I think that intuition is overweighted. If there’s a spectrum from ideas being fully saturated to completely empty of people working on them, when good ideas break in the news they are probably closer to the latter than I give them credit for being. At least, I need to update in that direction.
I think this is caused by the fact that we lack tooling to adequately assess the amount of free-energy available in new markets sparked by new ideas. Currently it seems the only gauge we have is media attention and investment announcements.
Taking the time to assess an opportunity is operationally expensive and I think I’ve optimized to accept that there’s probably little opportunity given that everyone else is observing the same thing. However, I’m not sure that it makes sense to adjust my optimization without first increasing my efficiency in assessing opportunities.