Her example makes no account for the time period at which each civilization reaches each stage. For her example to work, she’d have to come up with a model where civilizations appear and mature at different time intervals, then apply the SIA to civilizations at our level and in our current time period, and then show that this implies a late great filter.
It can be done, quite easily, but there are also models where SIA implies an early filter, or none at all. SIA boosts some worlds, and some of the worlds boosted by SIA have late filters, others have early filters.
Her example makes no account for the time period at which each civilization reaches each stage. For her example to work, she’d have to come up with a model where civilizations appear and mature at different time intervals, then apply the SIA to civilizations at our level and in our current time period, and then show that this implies a late great filter.
It can be done, quite easily, but there are also models where SIA implies an early filter, or none at all. SIA boosts some worlds, and some of the worlds boosted by SIA have late filters, others have early filters.
The argument is not yet completed.