The paper clearly tries to take all relevant strategic considerations into account. I can’t personally vouch that he succeeds. But I haven’t heard of his result being overturned on technical grounds. That is, I haven’t heard of anyone else coming along, doing a similar analysis, and concluding that coaches actually go for it on fourth down the correct amount. For this reason, I doubt that the problem is a technical flaw in his analysis.
The paper clearly tries to take all relevant strategic considerations into account. I can’t personally vouch that he succeeds. But I haven’t heard of his result being overturned on technical grounds. That is, I haven’t heard of anyone else coming along, doing a similar analysis, and concluding that coaches actually go for it on fourth down the correct amount. For this reason, I doubt that the problem is a technical flaw in his analysis.