It seems like it would be rational to fire someone who diverged from traditional methods and then lost. Even though there’s a correlation between running and winning, that doesn’t show causation, and the coach might just be barking up the wrong tree. And then he’s “someone who bet your money on some crazy idea”, who doesn’t seem like the sort of person you’d want working for you.
Of course, on Monday morning, we can easily tell that the coach should not be fired for this particular plan.
It’s true that it can be rational to fire someone who doesn’t buy IBM if the decision not to buy IBM constitutes evidence that worker is of low quality. But I don’t think that’s the case here. I think that if a football coach got fired for going for it on fourth down more often than most, he would have been fired because of that decision itself, not because going on fourth down represents a signal that he’s just generally a bad coach.
It seems like it would be rational to fire someone who diverged from traditional methods and then lost. Even though there’s a correlation between running and winning, that doesn’t show causation, and the coach might just be barking up the wrong tree. And then he’s “someone who bet your money on some crazy idea”, who doesn’t seem like the sort of person you’d want working for you.
Of course, on Monday morning, we can easily tell that the coach should not be fired for this particular plan.
It’s true that it can be rational to fire someone who doesn’t buy IBM if the decision not to buy IBM constitutes evidence that worker is of low quality. But I don’t think that’s the case here. I think that if a football coach got fired for going for it on fourth down more often than most, he would have been fired because of that decision itself, not because going on fourth down represents a signal that he’s just generally a bad coach.