Thanks for your response! I’ve worked in and around China for a long time and also read extensively on China (highly recommend “The Party” by Richard McGregor). So while I am not an expert by any means, I have at least a base of knowledge and experience more than the average joe.
Honestly, the NBA doesn’t have the moral compass to take this sort of action, nor does really any large US corporation. Even Google only pulled out of China when it didn’t matter. They were so behind in search and maps in Baidu, so when they left “due to censorship”, it didn’t affect their bottom line at all.
Also, people just don’t care as much about sports in China as in the US. Yeah, there are 600 million “fans”, but we are using that word in the broadest sense. The most hardcore of these will find ways to watch games if they are banned, the rest will just shrug it off. Even Apple, perhaps the most loved western brand in China, could be banned tomorrow and 90% of Apple users would just shrug and switch to a Huawei phone.
Perhaps I’m jaded, but I am not optimistic that anything can or will be done at this point, and certainly not from the private sector. In the public sector… western governments have failed so miserably at COVID that controlling it and recovering from the economic impacts are all they will care about in the next five to ten years. The eastern democracies that have handled COVID well are too economically tethered to China. They might make some noises, but won’t take any real action.
I’m definitely afraid that this is the most likely outcome. It’s a classic collective action problem. It’s interesting that the NBA will take action on social issues, but you could look at those and say they’ll only do it if it helps them financially, not if it will actually affect the bottom line. It would take concerted efforts from players (such as Enes Kanter) to get them to do anything. You would only have to convince 400 people in the league to make something like this happen-much smaller than trying to move the state dept. etc.
You may be correct, that at the end of the day folks just don’t care about sports very much. If you think there is a core fanbase of around 100 million people rabid fans in China, I believe that may be enough to move the needle. Again, this is not a high percentage play, but I think it’s an interesting option, that’s higher than the other options I see on the board to try to prevent this really bad thing from happening.
I think 100m is overstating the hardcore fan base by at least a factor of 10. You can do some fermi analysis to come up with a better ballpark number. Start with the middle class, further segment by young males, further segment by interest in NBA, then multiply by a hardcore fan factor ratio, which you could estimate by taking the ratio in the USA and applying a discount rate.
Also, I should mention, ideas that you think might have a higher chance of working are encouraged! This is a problem I think about a lot.
Thanks for your response! I’ve worked in and around China for a long time and also read extensively on China (highly recommend “The Party” by Richard McGregor). So while I am not an expert by any means, I have at least a base of knowledge and experience more than the average joe.
Honestly, the NBA doesn’t have the moral compass to take this sort of action, nor does really any large US corporation. Even Google only pulled out of China when it didn’t matter. They were so behind in search and maps in Baidu, so when they left “due to censorship”, it didn’t affect their bottom line at all.
Also, people just don’t care as much about sports in China as in the US. Yeah, there are 600 million “fans”, but we are using that word in the broadest sense. The most hardcore of these will find ways to watch games if they are banned, the rest will just shrug it off. Even Apple, perhaps the most loved western brand in China, could be banned tomorrow and 90% of Apple users would just shrug and switch to a Huawei phone.
Perhaps I’m jaded, but I am not optimistic that anything can or will be done at this point, and certainly not from the private sector. In the public sector… western governments have failed so miserably at COVID that controlling it and recovering from the economic impacts are all they will care about in the next five to ten years. The eastern democracies that have handled COVID well are too economically tethered to China. They might make some noises, but won’t take any real action.
I’m definitely afraid that this is the most likely outcome. It’s a classic collective action problem. It’s interesting that the NBA will take action on social issues, but you could look at those and say they’ll only do it if it helps them financially, not if it will actually affect the bottom line. It would take concerted efforts from players (such as Enes Kanter) to get them to do anything. You would only have to convince 400 people in the league to make something like this happen-much smaller than trying to move the state dept. etc.
You may be correct, that at the end of the day folks just don’t care about sports very much. If you think there is a core fanbase of around 100 million people rabid fans in China, I believe that may be enough to move the needle. Again, this is not a high percentage play, but I think it’s an interesting option, that’s higher than the other options I see on the board to try to prevent this really bad thing from happening.
I think 100m is overstating the hardcore fan base by at least a factor of 10. You can do some fermi analysis to come up with a better ballpark number. Start with the middle class, further segment by young males, further segment by interest in NBA, then multiply by a hardcore fan factor ratio, which you could estimate by taking the ratio in the USA and applying a discount rate.
Ahh-great idea!