As much as the media likes to call North Korea crazy, they’re not suicidal. But given their self-inflicted weak position, they’re more willing to take extreme risks to survive.
To make a good analysis of what North Korea is likely to do it’s helpful to think about it being made of a leadership of humans instead of being an abstract country that makes decisions.
North Korea is very much driven by different North Korean actors having to signal to each other who stronlgy patriotic they are.
At that point, can we trust Russia and China to stay out of it?
Why would we want China to stay out of North Korea in the case of a war? If they put their troops into North Korea to take control of it, that would be a nice outcome.
Neither Russia nor China would be interested in having WWIII.
If crushing sanctions don’t work, or don’t work fast enough, our only option is a preemptive strike.
What exactly do you try to argue here? That you don’t know how an effective North Korea policy that uses other tools than military strikes or sanctions looks like?
Q. How hard is it to smuggle a nuke into the country?
A. Easy, you hide it in the next bale of marijuana.
Ports do scan for radioactivity. Uranian is also very heavy which provides further ways to detect that a transport of a nuclear weapon.
I’m also not sure about whether North Korea has the capability of making a decision to deploy a nuclear weapon without US and Chinese intelligence agencies getting to know about it.
It’s also not the kind of action that’s good for signaling purposes. If agency A in North Korea smuggled the nuke and they want to get adminiration from agency B, they have to share information about it.
There’s also the risk that information about the location of the nuke leakes and the person responsible for the placement of the nuke get’s into problems as a result.
Apart from that the fact that North Korea has nuclear weapons is no recent event that warrants any change.
To make a good analysis of what North Korea is likely to do it’s helpful to think about it being made of a leadership of humans instead of being an abstract country that makes decisions.
Indeed, when I say “North Korea” I mean the Kim Family Regime. That’s the self-inflicted weak position I mentioned. They have to terrorize and indoctrinate the population to stay in power. Any meaningful reforms are poison to the regime, since they prove its illegitimacy. They’ve painted themselves in a corner. They have to be evil. That’s why we can’t just have a peace treaty and end the war.
Why would we want China to stay out of North Korea in the case of a war? If they put their troops into North Korea to take control of it, that would be a nice outcome. Neither Russia nor China would be interested in having WWIII.
The ideal outcome is that South Korea takes over, but yes, if China takes over that’s still better than the status quo. I meant “stay out of the nuclear confrontation.”. If the U.S. unilaterally uses nukes first, what repercussions does that have for the rest of the world? Would that weaken or strengthen the NPT? The MAD doctrine? Would China use the opportunity to take Taiwan? Would China retaliate (even accidentally) against a U.S. ally (like South Korea) for using nukes so close to its territory? Would that escalate?
What exactly do you try to argue here? That you don’t know how an effective North Korea policy that uses other tools than military strikes or sanctions looks like?
And it looks like no-one else does either. We don’t have any good options. Containment and “strategic patience” isn’t a good option either because the problem is steadily getting worse. North Korea continues to build more weapons. How bad does it have to get? What’s the tipping point? That is, at what point will we wish we’d ended the Korean War even at the cost of half of Seoul? The intervention should come before that. But another problem is, we can’t get good intelligence. It’s an isolated totalitarian state with extensive underground facilities. We can’t rely on spies on the ground. We just occasionally learn things from low-ranking defectors. We have spy satellites, but can’t see underground from orbit. If our intelligence is that unreliable, then we must intervene at a point long enough before the tipping point to account for our margin of error. What does the end of this story look like?
Ports do scan for radioactivity.
That’s a very important point I had not considered, and a possible defense against smuggled nukes. I’m not confident in the technical details though. The alpha and beta radiation is too easily shielded, but at what distance can we distinguish the gamma from background? If it’s only a few meters, that’s not really helpful. If it’s several kilometers, then we could perhaps interdict or sink a cargo ship before it threatens the coast.
Indeed, when I say “North Korea” I mean the Kim Family Regime.
The important thing about the family is that they kill each other. Jang Song-thaek who was rumored to be the defacto leader of North Korea in 2009 died in 2013. Finding yourself at the wrong side of a struggle inside the regime means death.
Kim Kyong-hui is a member of the Kim Family clan but I doubt her first priority is to worry about the US.
And it looks like no-one else does either. We don’t have any good options.
There’s the option to trade and thus push for information flow between North Korea and the outside world.
But another problem is, we can’t get good intelligence.
Without access to classified intelligence this is really hard to tell. There are drones flying around and there’s SIGINT intelligence. Information that’s communicated electronically inside of North Korea is subject to interception.
If the U.S. unilaterally uses nukes first, what repercussions does that have for the rest of the world?
That’s why the U.S. is very unlikely to nuke first. Even under Trump that’s unlikely to happen.
To make a good analysis of what North Korea is likely to do it’s helpful to think about it being made of a leadership of humans instead of being an abstract country that makes decisions.
North Korea is very much driven by different North Korean actors having to signal to each other who stronlgy patriotic they are.
Why would we want China to stay out of North Korea in the case of a war? If they put their troops into North Korea to take control of it, that would be a nice outcome. Neither Russia nor China would be interested in having WWIII.
What exactly do you try to argue here? That you don’t know how an effective North Korea policy that uses other tools than military strikes or sanctions looks like?
Ports do scan for radioactivity. Uranian is also very heavy which provides further ways to detect that a transport of a nuclear weapon.
I’m also not sure about whether North Korea has the capability of making a decision to deploy a nuclear weapon without US and Chinese intelligence agencies getting to know about it.
It’s also not the kind of action that’s good for signaling purposes. If agency A in North Korea smuggled the nuke and they want to get adminiration from agency B, they have to share information about it. There’s also the risk that information about the location of the nuke leakes and the person responsible for the placement of the nuke get’s into problems as a result.
Apart from that the fact that North Korea has nuclear weapons is no recent event that warrants any change.
Indeed, when I say “North Korea” I mean the Kim Family Regime. That’s the self-inflicted weak position I mentioned. They have to terrorize and indoctrinate the population to stay in power. Any meaningful reforms are poison to the regime, since they prove its illegitimacy. They’ve painted themselves in a corner. They have to be evil. That’s why we can’t just have a peace treaty and end the war.
The ideal outcome is that South Korea takes over, but yes, if China takes over that’s still better than the status quo. I meant “stay out of the nuclear confrontation.”. If the U.S. unilaterally uses nukes first, what repercussions does that have for the rest of the world? Would that weaken or strengthen the NPT? The MAD doctrine? Would China use the opportunity to take Taiwan? Would China retaliate (even accidentally) against a U.S. ally (like South Korea) for using nukes so close to its territory? Would that escalate?
And it looks like no-one else does either. We don’t have any good options. Containment and “strategic patience” isn’t a good option either because the problem is steadily getting worse. North Korea continues to build more weapons. How bad does it have to get? What’s the tipping point? That is, at what point will we wish we’d ended the Korean War even at the cost of half of Seoul? The intervention should come before that. But another problem is, we can’t get good intelligence. It’s an isolated totalitarian state with extensive underground facilities. We can’t rely on spies on the ground. We just occasionally learn things from low-ranking defectors. We have spy satellites, but can’t see underground from orbit. If our intelligence is that unreliable, then we must intervene at a point long enough before the tipping point to account for our margin of error. What does the end of this story look like?
That’s a very important point I had not considered, and a possible defense against smuggled nukes. I’m not confident in the technical details though. The alpha and beta radiation is too easily shielded, but at what distance can we distinguish the gamma from background? If it’s only a few meters, that’s not really helpful. If it’s several kilometers, then we could perhaps interdict or sink a cargo ship before it threatens the coast.
But this doesn’t apply to a smuggled bioweapon.
The important thing about the family is that they kill each other. Jang Song-thaek who was rumored to be the defacto leader of North Korea in 2009 died in 2013. Finding yourself at the wrong side of a struggle inside the regime means death.
Kim Kyong-hui is a member of the Kim Family clan but I doubt her first priority is to worry about the US.
There’s the option to trade and thus push for information flow between North Korea and the outside world.
Without access to classified intelligence this is really hard to tell. There are drones flying around and there’s SIGINT intelligence. Information that’s communicated electronically inside of North Korea is subject to interception.
That’s why the U.S. is very unlikely to nuke first. Even under Trump that’s unlikely to happen.