SETI Predictions

hippke30 Nov 2020 20:09 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

I enjoyed reading through people’s views of the AGI Predictions. I know only a little about AI and a little bit more about SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), so I decided to make a similar poll.

The First Contact scenario with extraterrestrial intelligence shares certain similarities with the emergence of AGI. In the following, I ask similar questions to those in the AGI post. In addition, I add questions derived from the SETI literature. These are intended to reflect on AGI from a new perspective.

In SETI, it is debated that First Contact can cause great disturbance and change, positive and negative. After all, civilizations which are capable of contacting us across the oceans of time and space are expected to be much more advanced—just like AGI is expected to be “superior” (whatever that means) to baseline humans.

The form of First Contact

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Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?
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If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?
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If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?

Its timeline

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We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.
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There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.
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We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.
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Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)

Our response

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If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?
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If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?
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If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?

The consequences

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Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?
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Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?
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If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?
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Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?
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If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?
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Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?
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Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?
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The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)
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The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )
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The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)

Meta Questions

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The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?
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Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?
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The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).
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We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".

And finally, of course:

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ETI is AGI
hippke30 Nov 2020 20:09 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readLW link