You clearly know what mistake it is you’re making; why are you stopping right before the part where you correct that mistake?
Because:
Just because I understand why you are calling it a mistake doesn’t mean that I need to either agree with you that it is a mistake or argue with you.
I have already suggested elsewhere that my preference would be to assign an infinitesimal probability, rather than a zero probability, to God’s existence, but that spoilsport Jaynes doesn’t want to let me.
You Bayes purists keep telling me that the mistake, once made, is very difficult to correct, and I have enough difficulties in my life right now. Seems to me that I may as well just continue with my current probability assignments until I die. At which time I may either be proven right after all, or else I will be presented with ample time to correct my mistake.
or self I will be presented with ample time to correct my mistake.
I’m confused by this. You seem to be implying that you use a different epistemology if there’s life after death than you do during life. How do you justify this? If you aren’t doing so, how can you then update in the way described?
I have already suggested elsewhere that my preference would be to assign an infinitesimal probability, rather than a zero probability, to God’s existence, but that spoilsport Jaynes doesn’t want to let me.
Does setting an infinitesimal probability preclude updates to non-infinitesimal probabilities?
Because:
Just because I understand why you are calling it a mistake doesn’t mean that I need to either agree with you that it is a mistake or argue with you.
I have already suggested elsewhere that my preference would be to assign an infinitesimal probability, rather than a zero probability, to God’s existence, but that spoilsport Jaynes doesn’t want to let me.
You Bayes purists keep telling me that the mistake, once made, is very difficult to correct, and I have enough difficulties in my life right now. Seems to me that I may as well just continue with my current probability assignments until I die. At which time I may either be proven right after all, or else I will be presented with ample time to correct my mistake.
I’m confused by this. You seem to be implying that you use a different epistemology if there’s life after death than you do during life. How do you justify this? If you aren’t doing so, how can you then update in the way described?
More time to think things through carefully. But, at least to some extent, I was being facetious in my point #3.
Does setting an infinitesimal probability preclude updates to non-infinitesimal probabilities?