I like your model, or something similar. The way I would do it, though, is to claim that my own decision-making is done by a committee of rational Bayesian minds—all resident within my head. Right now, the chairman of the committee assigns 0 to the probability that God exists. However, should we have a black swan event like a Rapture, then the chairman is helpless—he cannot update. No problem, though, because the other members of the committee were not so foolish as to become strong atheists. They will simply assassinate the now-useless former chairman of the Committee for Allowing Perplexed to Exhibit Rationality (CAPER) and replace him with a theist. The mind is under new management, but the body marches on.
I like your model, or something similar. The way I would do it, though, is to claim that my own decision-making is done by a committee of rational Bayesian minds—all resident within my head. Right now, the chairman of the committee assigns 0 to the probability that God exists. However, should we have a black swan event like a Rapture, then the chairman is helpless—he cannot update. No problem, though, because the other members of the committee were not so foolish as to become strong atheists. They will simply assassinate the now-useless former chairman of the Committee for Allowing Perplexed to Exhibit Rationality (CAPER) and replace him with a theist. The mind is under new management, but the body marches on.