I appreciate you being relatively clear about this, but yeah, I think it’s probably better to spend more time learning facts and thinking stuff through, compared to writing breathless LW posts. More like a couple weeks rather than a couple days. But that’s just my stupid opinion. The thing is, there’s probably gonna be like ten other posts in the reference class of this post, and they just… don’t leave much of a dent in things? There’s a lot that needs serious thinking-through, let’s get to work on that! But IDK, maybe someone will be inspired by this post to think through orca stuff more thoroughly.
I don’t think I’m the right person to look into this.
I just updated quickly via conservation of expected probability. (I agree though that I’d be a bit concerned about most people updating that quickly. If you think I’ve gone slightly psychotic please bet with me so I update harder if I notice you’re right.)
(EDIT: actually it’s sorta shitty because we might not get more evidence because I have even more important things to do and probably don’t have time to look into it myself, but i’m happy to bet, though I’d probably want to revise my betting probability.)
I’m happy to bet on “By the end of 2034, does Tsvi think that it’s >60% likely that orcas could do superhuman science if they had similar quality and quantity of science education as scientists and were motivated for this, conditional on Tsvi having talked to me for at least 2 hours about this {sometime in 2030-2034}/{when I might have more evidence}?”
I’d currently be at like 30%26% on this, though if you take more time to think about it I might adjust this estimate I am willing to bet on.
I’m happy to bet up to 200$ per bit (or maybe more but would have to think about it). Aka if it’s resolved “Yes”, money flowing from you to me would be 200$⋅(log2(pme)−log2(pTsvi)) (and if it’s resolved “No” it would be 200$⋅(log2(1−pme)−log2(1−pTsvi)) ). (Where negative money flow indicates flow into the other direction.)
(Also obviously you’d need to commit to talking to me for 2h sometime when i have more evidence, and not just avoid resolution by not talking to me.)
I don’t know what you mean by this:
The thing is, there’s probably gonna be like ten other posts in the reference class of this post, and they just… don’t leave much of a dent in things?
I appreciate you being relatively clear about this, but yeah, I think it’s probably better to spend more time learning facts and thinking stuff through, compared to writing breathless LW posts. More like a couple weeks rather than a couple days. But that’s just my stupid opinion. The thing is, there’s probably gonna be like ten other posts in the reference class of this post, and they just… don’t leave much of a dent in things? There’s a lot that needs serious thinking-through, let’s get to work on that! But IDK, maybe someone will be inspired by this post to think through orca stuff more thoroughly.
I don’t think I’m the right person to look into this.
I just updated quickly via conservation of expected probability. (I agree though that I’d be a bit concerned about most people updating that quickly. If you think I’ve gone slightly psychotic please bet with me so I update harder if I notice you’re right.)
(EDIT: actually it’s sorta shitty because we might not get more evidence because I have even more important things to do and probably don’t have time to look into it myself, but i’m happy to bet, though I’d probably want to revise my betting probability.)
I’m happy to bet on “By the end of 2034, does Tsvi think that it’s >60% likely that orcas could do superhuman science if they had similar quality and quantity of science education as scientists and were motivated for this, conditional on Tsvi having talked to me for at least 2 hours about this {sometime in 2030-2034}/{when I might have more evidence}?”
I’d currently be at like
30%26% on this, though if you take more time to think about it I might adjust this estimate I am willing to bet on.I’m happy to bet up to 200$ per bit (or maybe more but would have to think about it). Aka if it’s resolved “Yes”, money flowing from you to me would be 200$⋅(log2(pme)−log2(pTsvi)) (and if it’s resolved “No” it would be 200$⋅(log2(1−pme)−log2(1−pTsvi)) ). (Where negative money flow indicates flow into the other direction.)
(Also obviously you’d need to commit to talking to me for 2h sometime when i have more evidence, and not just avoid resolution by not talking to me.)
I don’t know what you mean by this:
I don’t care about doing this bet. We can just have a conversation though, feel free to DM me.