(For reference I think Tsvi and GeneSmith have much more relevant knowledge for evaluating the chance of superbabies being feasible and I updated my guess to like 78%.)
(As it happens I also became more optimistic about the orca plan (especially in terms of how much it would cost and how long it would take, but also a bit in how likely I think it is that orcas would actually study science) (see footnote 4 in post). For <=30y timelines I think the orca plan is a bit more promising, though overall the superbabies plan is more promising/important. I’m now seriously considering pivoting to the orca plan though.) (EDIT: tbc I’m considering pivoting from alignment research, not superbaby research.)
(For reference I think Tsvi and GeneSmith have much more relevant knowledge for evaluating the chance of superbabies being feasible and I updated my guess to like 78%.)
(As it happens I also became more optimistic about the orca plan (especially in terms of how much it would cost and how long it would take, but also a bit in how likely I think it is that orcas would actually study science) (see footnote 4 in post). For <=30y timelines I think the orca plan is a bit more promising, though overall the superbabies plan is more promising/important. I’m now seriously considering pivoting to the orca plan though.) (EDIT: tbc I’m considering pivoting from alignment research, not superbaby research.)